OPINION: Today’s poll is from Talbot Mills Research - formerly UMR. They’re the company used by Labour, but their numbers are pretty consistent with other pollsters.
And their numbers today will have National MPs heading to Seek.co.nz. Yep, it’s that bad. The poll has National on 22 percent - which would give them just 28 MPs.
That’s 5 fewer than they have now, and on their current list rankings means decent performers like Nicola Willis and Michael Woodhouse would be out. So with National shedding MPs, who’s gaining them?
The big winner is the ACT Party. They’d more than double their current caucus - They’d have 21 MPs in Parliament, just 7 shy of National’s 28. It’s a far cry to the days of ACT desperately needing National’s dirty deal in Epsom for them to stay in Parliament.
Remember that cup of tea between John Key and John Banks? National is the only reason ACT stayed afloat then. ACT was a leech, sucking onto National for dear life!
But now ACT is sucking votes from National, and National is slowly dying. It reminds me of Labour under Shearer, then Cunliffe, then Little. During those years, the Greens surged ahead and there was talk of them eventually overtaking Labour as the big party of the left. But it never eventuated because the Greens always talked about only governing with Labour.
So what does National need to do now to prevent ACT becoming the party-de-jour of the right? It comes down to leadership. Ardern saved Labour. Someone needs to save National. National needs an Ardern.
And that means Collins falling on her sword and realising she’s not helping the party, she’s hurting it.
She needs to get her act together. Otherwise ACT will keep getting National’s voters.
Catch Lloyd Burr Live every weekday from 4pm on Magic Talk.